Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on September 7, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Dodgers, currently sitting at 84-57, are enjoying a strong season and are looking to bounce back after losing 3-1 to the Guardians in their last matchup on September 6. Meanwhile, the Guardians boast an 81-60 record, marking them as a competitive force this year.

The pitching matchup features Dodgers' left-hander Justin Wrobleski against Guardians' right-hander Gavin Williams. Wrobleski has struggled this season, ranking as the 251st best starting pitcher in MLB, with an ERA of 6.82 and a troubling performance in his last start where he allowed 10 earned runs. In contrast, Williams has shown more promise, ranking 59th and posting a more respectable ERA of 4.55. Although both pitchers project to pitch around 4.8 innings, Williams is expected to allow fewer earned runs compared to Wrobleski, who has a tendency to give up hits and walks.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 3rd in MLB, showcasing their power with a strong lineup led by Shohei Ohtani, who has produced 45 home runs and a .993 OPS this season. The Guardians, on the other hand, are average in offensive rankings, sitting at 17th overall. This could give the Dodgers a clear advantage, especially considering their recent performance and the projections, which indicate the Dodgers are likely to score significantly more runs than the Guardians.

With the Dodgers listed as betting favorites with a moneyline of -165 and an implied team total of 4.71 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Dodger Stadium. As they seek redemption after their recent loss, the Dodgers will aim to leverage their potent offense against a struggling Wrobleski and secure a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams has tallied 14.8 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Lane Thomas's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 82-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Tommy Edman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 76 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 away games (+12.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tyler Freeman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.02 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.48

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