Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Prediction For 6/29/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians are set to face off on June 29, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium for the third game in their series. This American League Central matchup features the Royals, who are having an above-average season with a 46-38 record, against the Guardians, who boast an impressive 51-29 record. Both teams are vying for position in the standings, making this a crucial game.

In their last meeting on June 28, the Royals dominated with a 10-3 victory over the Guardians, surprising many as both teams had an implied win probability of 50% going into the game. The Royals' offense, ranked 14th in MLB, came alive, and they'll be looking to carry that momentum into today's game.

Kansas City will send Cole Ragans to the mound. Ragans, the 13th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a solid 3.03 ERA this season. He is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, which is considered good. However, his high strikeout rate of 28.9% may be challenged by the Guardians, who are the 4th best in avoiding strikeouts.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee, the 23rd best starting pitcher. Bibee has a 3.50 ERA and is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs. Like Ragans, Bibee is also a high-strikeout pitcher with a 29.4% strikeout rate, but he faces a Royals lineup that is the 5th best in avoiding strikeouts.

Offensively, the Royals are led by Bobby Witt Jr., who has posted a .310 batting average and .894 OPS this season. Hunter Renfroe has been hot over the last week, hitting .353 with a 1.182 OPS. For the Guardians, Jose Ramirez remains a key player with a .278 batting average and .879 OPS, while Gabriel Arias has been their best hitter over the last week, boasting a .467 average.

Betting markets see this as another close contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Royals a slight edge with a 53% win probability. Expect a tightly contested game with both teams looking to gain an advantage in the standings.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Over the past two weeks, David Fry's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans will benefit from being matched up with 6 bats in the projected offense who bat from the other side in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Hunter Renfroe has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 81.7-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals (21 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 73 games (+14.77 Units / 16% ROI)
• MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.48 vs Kansas City Royals 4.31

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