Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Prediction For 6/27/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As we gear up for an American League Central matchup on June 27, 2024, the Kansas City Royals (44-38) will host the Cleveland Guardians (51-27) at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are having an above-average season, while the Guardians are enjoying a great one. This game is the first in the series between these two teams, making it crucial for both squads as they battle for division supremacy.

Kansas City will send Michael Wacha to the mound. Wacha, who has started 12 games this season, holds a 4-5 record with a 4.24 ERA. However, his 3.58 xERA suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Despite his average overall ranking (#95) among MLB pitchers, Wacha's low strikeout rate (19.8%) might be a disadvantage against a Guardians lineup that strikes out the second-least in MLB.

Cleveland will counter with Ben Lively, who has been somewhat fortunate this season. Despite a stellar 3.02 ERA, his 4.19 xFIP indicates that regression might be on the horizon. Lively has a 6-3 record through 11 starts but is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 6.1 hits, and 1.3 walks on average, which are all concerning signs.

Offensively, both teams are quite balanced. The Royals rank 14th in overall offense, 16th in batting average, and 16th in home runs, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th. The Guardians are slightly better, ranking 13th in overall offense, 12th in batting average, and 10th in home runs, while also ranking 8th in stolen bases.

Freddy Fermin has been the Royals' standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.133 OPS. On the Guardians' side, Bo Naylor has been red-hot, hitting .429 with a 1.467 OPS in his last five games.

Both teams have a moneyline of -110, suggesting an evenly matched contest. However, given Wacha's potential for better performance and Cleveland's offensive prowess, the Guardians might have a slight edge in this pivotal division clash.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Jose Ramirez will get to bat from his strong side against Michael Wacha today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 18.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Michael Wacha is projected to throw 37 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+7.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.96 vs Kansas City Royals 5.2

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