Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Pick & Prediction – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 4, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positioning in the American League Central. The Royals are currently 75-65, enjoying an above-average season, while the Guardians lead the division with an impressive 80-59 record. This matchup is significant, especially considering the Royals' recent offensive surge, highlighted by Bobby Witt Jr. leading the team with 6 hits and 3 home runs over the past week.

The Royals are projected to start right-hander Seth Lugo, who has had a solid year with a 14-8 record and a commendable 3.12 ERA. However, the projections indicate that he may be due for regression, as his 3.90 xFIP suggests he has benefitted from some good fortune this season. Lugo's ability to pitch into the 5th inning is average, but he has struggled with walks, allowing 1.6 on average, which could be a factor against a Guardians lineup that ranks 18th in overall offense but has shown flashes of power.

On the other side, Ben Lively, another right-handed pitcher, takes the mound for the Guardians. His performance has been less consistent, with an 11-8 record and a 3.92 ERA. Lively's projections also indicate he could face challenges, particularly against the Royals' low-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd least in MLB. Given Lively's low strikeout rate, this could play to the Royals' advantage.

With the Royals favored at -140, implying a win probability of 56%, they appear to have a slight edge in this critical game. However, considering their recent performance and overall batting talent, they could very well exceed expectations against a Guardians team that is still vying for dominance in the division.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

When it comes to his home runs, Steven Kwan has been lucky this year. His 15.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 5.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 80 of their last 139 games (+11.22 Units / 6% ROI)
• Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+15.50 Units / 129% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.13 vs Kansas City Royals 4.89

Get daily MLB picks here.