Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Pick & Prediction – 6/28/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

Baseball fans are in for an intriguing matchup on June 28, 2024, as the Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium. This American League Central clash features two teams having strong seasons, with the Royals posting a 45-38 record and the Guardians leading the division at 51-28.

On the mound, Kansas City will send Alec Marsh to start, while Cleveland counters with Triston McKenzie. Both right-handers have had middling results this season, with Marsh holding a 4.37 ERA and a 5-4 record through 13 starts. Despite his average ERA, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks Marsh as the 242nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating he's struggled overall. McKenzie, not faring much better, brings a 4.48 ERA and a 3-4 record in 14 starts. His peripheral stats suggest he's been fortunate thus far, with a 5.22 xFIP indicating potential regression.

Offensively, the teams are evenly matched but have different strengths. The Royals' bats rank 14th in MLB, with highlights including a 7th place ranking in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Guardians' lineup, also average at 13th overall, showcases power, ranking 8th in home runs. The Royals will look to Kyle Isbel, who has been scorching hot over the last week, hitting .300 with a 1.100 OPS, including a home run. The Guardians will counter with Gabriel Arias, who has been on fire, batting .467 with a 1.267 OPS over the last seven games.

The bullpens present a stark contrast. Kansas City's relief corps is ranked 26th and has struggled mightily, whereas Cleveland's bullpen, the 2nd best, has been a vital part of their success.

Yesterday, in the series opener, the Guardians edged out the Royals in a close game. Both teams will be eager to secure a win in this crucial series. Betting markets reflect the tight contest, with the Royals at +100 and the Guardians at -120, implying a narrow advantage for Cleveland.

Given the Guardians' superior bullpen and the Royals' below-average starting pitching, Cleveland might have the edge, but look for a tight, high-scoring affair with a game total set at 10 runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Considering the 1.48 discrepancy between Triston McKenzie's 4.48 ERA and his 5.96 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should see worse results the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Steven Kwan has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 87.4-mph average to last season's 85.3-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Cleveland Guardians (19.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy team of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Among all starting pitchers, Alec Marsh's fastball spin rate of 2519 rpm grades out in the 93rd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Salvador Perez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Triston McKenzie.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 76 games (+15.87 Units / 16% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+11.35 Units / 16% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.84 vs Kansas City Royals 5.22

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