Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In a pivotal matchup in the American League Central, the Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians on September 2, 2024. Both teams are vying for their playoff aspirations, with the Royals sitting at 75-63 and the Guardians at 78-59. The Royals are having an above-average season, while the Guardians have enjoyed a strong campaign.

Both teams come into this game with contrasting momentum. The Royals fell to the Houston Astros in their last outing, suffering a lopsided 7-2 defeat on September 1. Meanwhile, the Guardians are fresh off a solid 6-1 victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates, showcasing their offensive prowess.

On the mound, Kansas City is projected to start Michael Wacha, who ranks as the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB and has an impressive ERA of 3.50. However, Wacha's 4.12 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat lucky this season, and he recently struggled, yielding five earned runs in his last start. In contrast, Gavin Williams of the Guardians, though ranked 67th, has a more concerning 4.99 ERA but is projected to have been unlucky, with a 3.96 xFIP indicating potential for improvement.

Offensively, the Royals have the edge with a #12 ranking in batting, supported by their best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr., who has been on fire lately, accumulating four home runs in the last week alone. The Guardians sit at #21 in offensive rankings, relying heavily on Jose Ramirez, who has been consistent but has less explosive recent production.

Interestingly, the projections favor the Royals slightly to score more today than their average implied team total, which could make them a worthwhile bet given their recent struggles but overall solid offensive capabilities. With an average game total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup should be intensely competitive, as both teams look to solidify their standing in the chase for the postseason.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's slider utilization has dropped by 15.8% from last year to this one (22.1% to 6.3%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In terms of his home runs, Steven Kwan has been very fortunate this year. His 16.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 6.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has risen 1.6 mph this year (93 mph) over where it was last season (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 away games (+11.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.56 vs Kansas City Royals 4.45

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