Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 7/30/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Undecided - Tigers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the Cleveland Guardians on July 30, 2024, at Comerica Park in the second game of their series. This American League Central matchup features two teams on different trajectories this season. The Tigers, with a record of 52-56, are having a below-average season, while the Guardians, at 64-42, are enjoying a great year.

The Tigers have yet to decide on a starting pitcher officially just yet, as they are likely not done maneuvering around the trade deadline.

On the other side, the Guardians will start right-hander Gavin Williams. Williams has a 4.50 ERA and an 0-3 record in five starts this season. Despite his average ERA, his 3.27 FIP indicates he's been unlucky and might perform better going forward. The projections have Williams pitching 5.0 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, 4.6 hits, and 1.5 walks, with 5.0 strikeouts on average. Williams's ability to limit runs could be a key factor in this game.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranking 26th in overall offense and 23rd in team batting average. Their best hitter over the last week has been Colt Keith, who has recorded 8 hits, 1 home run, and a .308 batting average in his last 7 games. Conversely, the Guardians' offense ranks 14th overall, with Jose Ramirez leading the charge. Ramirez has been on fire, hitting .320 with 3 home runs and a 1.174 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Tigers ranked 9th and the Guardians 2nd in the Power Rankings. This game will likely come down to which starter can best navigate the opposing lineup and hand the ball over to their reliable relievers. Given the Guardians' superior season performance and solid pitching projections, they appear to have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Williams to throw 84 pitches in today's game (6th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brayan Rocchio's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 74.4-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.275) suggests that Justyn-Henry Malloy has had positive variance on his side this year with his .315 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

In today's matchup, Ryan Kreidler is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 97 games (+8.97 Units / 7% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 62% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.59 vs Detroit Tigers 3.82

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