Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 6/12/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds host the Cleveland Guardians on June 12, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Reds, who are currently 32-35 and having a below-average season, face off against the Guardians, who are enjoying an excellent campaign with a 43-22 record.

On the mound, the Reds will start left-hander Nick Lodolo, who has been solid this season with a 2.92 ERA over 9 starts and a 6-2 Win/Loss record. However, his 3.52 xFIP suggests he might be pitching a bit over his head and could regress. Lodolo is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.4 hits over an average of 5.6 innings, while striking out 5.1 batters. Notably, Lodolo's high strikeout rate (26.3%) could be less effective against a Guardians lineup that ranks 5th in MLB for the least strikeouts.

Opposing Lodolo will be Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. Bibee has been dependable with a 4-1 Win/Loss record and a 3.73 ERA over 13 starts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts him to allow 2.5 earned runs and 4.9 hits over 5.3 innings while striking out 5.4 batters. Like Lodolo, Bibee’s projections suggest some vulnerability, especially in allowing hits and walks.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th in MLB, an average standing, but their .227 team batting average ranks 27th, which is a glaring weakness. On a positive note, they rank 2nd in stolen bases, showing an aggressive base-running approach. Over the past week, TJ Friedl has been their standout performer with a 1.000 OPS, 2 home runs, and 6 RBIs.

In bullpen strength, the Guardians hold a decisive edge, ranking 3rd in the Power Rankings compared to the Reds' 18th. While the Reds' bullpen is performing at an average level, Cleveland’s late-game relief could be a game-changer.

Betting markets see a close game, with the Reds holding a slight edge at -120, indicating a 52% implied win probability. Given the Guardians' overall superior season and recent form, this game could be closer than the odds suggest.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo is projected to average 16.8 outs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.85 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games (+15.87 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 41 games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.74 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.37

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