Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 6/25/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Baseball fans are in for a treat on June 25, 2024, as two of the American League’s top teams square off at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Baltimore Orioles, boasting a 49-29 record, host the Cleveland Guardians, who sit at 50-26. Both teams are having stellar seasons, making this matchup particularly intriguing.

Baltimore is coming off a crucial series opener against Cleveland and looks to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The Orioles' offense has been a powerhouse this season, ranking 2nd overall in MLB and leading the league in home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been on fire over the last week, hitting .321 with an impressive 1.120 OPS, adding two home runs and four stolen bases to his tally.

On the mound, the Orioles will start left-hander Cole Irvin, who has been somewhat of an enigma this season. Despite a solid 6-3 record and a respectable 3.45 ERA, his 4.22 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Irvin to have an average outing, pitching around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. His low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Guardians lineup that is tough to punch out, ranking 2nd in least strikeouts in MLB.

The Guardians counter with lefty Logan Allen, who has an 8-3 record but struggles with a 5.23 ERA. However, his 4.66 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky. Allen is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs. Cleveland’s offense, ranked 13th overall, has been led by Steven Kwan, who’s been scorching hot, hitting .333 with a 1.141 OPS over the last week.

Baltimore’s bullpen, ranked 11th by the projections, will need to be on point to hold off a Guardians team that has the best bullpen in MLB. Despite this, the Orioles are favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%.

With both teams excelling this season, this matchup promises high stakes and plenty of excitement. The Orioles’ potent offense and home-field edge give them the upper hand, but don’t count out the resilient Guardians, especially with their elite bullpen ready to make an impact.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Cole Irvin will wring up 16.9 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Ramon Urias, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 3rd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+18.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+15.17 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.58 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.77

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