Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/19/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to face the Cincinnati Reds on July 19, 2024, at Nationals Park in what appears to be an interesting matchup between two struggling teams looking to turn their seasons around. The Nationals, with a 44-53 record, and the Reds, standing at 47-50, are both having below-average seasons and are not currently in contention for a playoff spot.

Washington will send left-hander Patrick Corbin to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 1-9 record and a 5.57 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Corbin’s 4.44 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could improve going forward. However, Corbin's peripherals are concerning, projecting to allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.1 innings pitched, with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.1 per game.

On the other side, Cincinnati will counter with right-hander Frankie Montas. Montas has been more reliable with a 4-7 record and a 4.38 ERA, which aligns with his projection as an average pitcher. He is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs. While Montas’s strikeout projection of 4.5 is also below average, his overall performance gives the Reds a slight edge on the mound.

Offensively, neither team has stood out this season. The Nationals' offense ranks 26th in MLB, with their power being particularly weak, ranking 29th in team home runs. Their one strength lies in speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. Comparatively, the Reds' offense is more balanced, ranking 16th overall, though they also struggle with a low team batting average (26th) but show more power, ranking 14th in home runs. Their speed on the bases is top-notch, leading the league in stolen bases.

With both teams giving the nod to pitchers who have their struggles, and offenses that have issues of their own, this game is shaping up to be a closely contested National League matchup. Betting markets reflect this, with a close moneyline, giving the Reds a slight edge at -120 and an implied win probability of 52%. The Nationals, at +100, have a 48% implied probability. The projected game total of 9.0 runs suggests that both teams might find success at the plate in what could be a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of all starters, Frankie Montas's fastball velocity of 94.6 mph is in the 75th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 24.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Patrick Corbin will wring up 15.4 outs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.9-mph EV last season has fallen off to 86.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 5.27 vs Washington Nationals 4.53

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