Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 7/22/2025

The Cincinnati Reds head to Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night. Washington won the opening game of this three-game series in a game that featured offensive fireworks on both sides. Cincinnati will look to bounce back from that loss tonight in what could be another high-scoring contest. Continue reading to get my Reds vs Nationals prediction for Tuesday in D.C.

Our Reds vs Nationals Pick

• Pick: Over 8.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (52‑49) at Washington Nationals (40‑60)
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 22, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Chase Burns (0‑1, 6.19 ERA) vs Brad Lord (2‑5, 3.46 ERA)
• Stadium: Nationals Park
• Broadcast: MASN and FDSOH

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Chase Burns: Cincinnati’s Chase Burns has been volatile on the mound so far in 2025. He is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA. In 16 innings of work, he has allowed three home runs. But he has also struck out an impressive 25 batters in those 16 innings and how he performs tonight will be anyone’s guess.
• Brad Lord: Washington’s Brad Lord has quietly compiled a 3.46 ERA through 65 innings this season. He has struggled a bit with his control this season, allowing 23 walks on the year. Lord may struggle to navigate a Reds offense featuring power threats like Elly De La Cruz. But he can’t be counted out from having a quality start here either.

Bullpen usage

Both bullpens struggled mightily last night in Washington’s 10-8 win over the Reds. The bullpen that does the better job of bouncing back from their struggles tonight will give their team a great chance to pick up a win.

Recent team streaks

• The Reds have lost two games in a row coming into this contest. They lost their series finale with the Mets before losing on Monday to the Nats.
• The Nationals have won two of their last three games coming into the second game of this three-game set at home.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Nationals lead the season series against the Reds 3-1 after Monday’s game.
• Games between these teams have gone 2-2 in the over/under market this season.
• Nationals games have gone over their totals 55.2% of the time this season. That is the fourth-highest percentage in MLB in 2025.

Reds vs Nationals Model Projection

Score Projection: Reds 5 – Nationals 3
Win Probability: Reds 59 %, Nationals 41 %

Final Thoughts

The Reds enter this game as favorites. But instead of taking a side in this matchup, I have my eye on the over. Both pitching staffs feature inconsistent starters taking the hill tonight. And with the Nationals having the worst bullpen in baseball this year, I am expecting one or both teams to do some late scoring. We should see another game reach double-digits between these teams.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.