Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Spiers - Reds
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of somewhat disappointing seasons. The Blue Jays sit at 58-67 and are projected to start Jose Berrios, who boasts a solid 3.85 ERA but ranks as the 147th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating below-average performance. Conversely, the Reds are slightly better at 61-64, with Carson Spiers set to take the mound. Despite a respectable ERA of 4.55, Spiers has been labeled one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics.

In their previous matchup, the Reds edged out the Blue Jays in a close contest, adding pressure on Toronto to rebound at home here. Berrios, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Reds offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage. His average projection of 2.4 earned runs allowed today appears favorable, especially since the Reds have struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Meanwhile, Toronto's offensive struggles are evident; they rank 20th in MLB overall, with a particularly concerning 27th for home runs. This lack of power may hinder their ability to exploit Spiers, who tends to allow fly balls. The projections suggest a higher implied team total for the Blue Jays at 4.27 runs, making them potential beneficiaries of this crucial matchup. If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can keep up his hot streak, having recently recorded 6 hits in the last week, it could turn the tide for Toronto's offense against a pitcher like Spiers, who might be more vulnerable than his average ERA indicates.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among every team on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.1° mark is among the highest in MLB this year (#1 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has averaged 18 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.1-mph now compared to just 92.1-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 57 games (+18.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+9.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.70 Units / 43% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.07 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.68

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