Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 7/26/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Shane Baz - Rays

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays gear up to host the Cincinnati Reds at Tropicana Field on July 26, 2024, both teams find themselves navigating through challenging seasons. The Rays, with a record of 52-51, are having an average season, while the Reds are slightly worse off at 49-53. This interleague matchup opens a new series, adding some intrigue to the midsummer baseball calendar.

The Rays will send Shane Baz to the mound. Baz, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rocky start to his year with a 0-1 record and a 3.95 ERA. However, his 5.09 xFIP suggests that he's been a bit fortunate thus far, potentially signaling tougher outings ahead. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Baz is ranked as the 154th-best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers, which paints a less optimistic picture for Rays fans.

On the flip side, the Reds will counter with Nick Lodolo, a left-handed pitcher who has been one of the bright spots for Cincinnati. Lodolo boasts an 8-3 record and a solid 3.51 ERA, ranking as the 43rd-best starting pitcher in the league. His 6.4 strikeouts per game projection is particularly encouraging for Reds backers.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled this season. They rank 23rd in team batting average and 26th in home runs, a combination that hasn't helped their cause. However, they've been effective on the basepaths, ranking 4th in stolen bases. The Reds' lineup offers a mixed bag as well, with a 17th-best overall offense but ranking 27th in batting average. They do, however, sit at 13th in home runs and 1st in stolen bases, providing some spark on offense.

Randy Arozarena has been the standout performer for the Rays recently, hitting .333 with a 1.267 OPS over his last seven games. On the Reds' side, Elly De La Cruz has been on fire, posting a .381 average and a 1.173 OPS in his last five games.

In terms of bullpen performance, the Rays have a significant edge, ranking 9th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Reds' bullpen struggles at 26th. This could play a crucial role in a game projected to be tightly contested.

Betting markets currently show the Rays with a slight edge at -115, implying a 51% win probability, while the Reds sit at -105, implying a 49% chance. With both teams closely matched, this game shapes up to be an exciting and critical contest for both clubs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's high usage rate of his fastball (55.7% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Rece Hinds's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 92-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 75.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rece Hinds, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Siri has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .290 rate is deflated compared to his .329 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+13.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 85 games (+9.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+11.25 Units / 51% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.82 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.89

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.