Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 7/27/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On July 27, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds will face off in the second game of their interleague series at Tropicana Field. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Rays holding a 52-52 record and the Reds at 50-53. While neither team is currently a powerhouse, their recent performances and particular matchups could make this game intriguing for bettors.

The Rays will send right-hander Zack Littell to the mound. Littell, ranked as the #124 starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, has had a mixed season with a 3-7 Win/Loss record and a 4.46 ERA. However, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and might be due for some positive regression. Littell is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.4 batters, but also giving up 5.0 hits and 1.1 walks.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with left-hander Andrew Abbott. Abbott boasts a 9-6 Win/Loss record and an impressive 3.19 ERA. However, his 4.92 xFIP indicates he may have been overly fortunate this season. He's projected to go 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 5.1 batters, and giving up 4.7 hits and 2.0 walks. Abbott's tendency to induce flyballs could play to his advantage against a Rays offense that ranks 26th in MLB for home runs.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled, ranking 21st overall and 23rd in team batting average. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th. The Reds sit at an average 16th in overall offense and lead the league in stolen bases. Their power numbers are slightly better, ranking 13th in home runs despite a poor 27th in team batting average.

Given the odds, the Rays are slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Reds are at +100, implying a 48% win probability. With the Rays' bullpen advantage and the potential for Littell to perform better than his ERA suggests, Tampa Bay could have the upper hand in this matchup. Expect a close game, but the Rays' slight edges in pitching and bullpen depth might just tilt the balance in their favor.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Considering that groundball hitters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Andrew Abbott and his 40.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's game going up against 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell has relied on his four-seam fastball 6.9% less often this year (21%) than he did last year (27.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jonny Deluca has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 85-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 5th-worst projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 61 of their last 98 games (+21.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+10.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jose Caballero has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 73% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.86 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.27

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