Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/29/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Spiers - Reds
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on June 29, 2024, at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. The Cardinals, currently boasting a 42-39 record, are having an above-average season and sit in contention. Meanwhile, the Reds, with a 38-44 record, have struggled below average this year.

On the mound, the Cardinals will send Sonny Gray, the #12 best starting pitcher per advanced-stat Power Rankings, to start. Gray has been stellar this season with a 9-4 record and an excellent 2.81 ERA over 14 starts. His recent performance on June 23 saw him dominate, pitching 7 innings with 8 strikeouts, allowing just 1 earned run, and walking none. Gray’s projections for today are solid, forecasting 5.3 innings pitched and only 1.9 earned runs allowed on average, indicating he can continue his impressive run.

For the Reds, Carson Spiers, who has split time between the bullpen and the starting rotation, will take the mound. Spiers holds a 3.45 ERA this season, but his xFIP of 4.03 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. While his 1-1 win/loss record may not stand out, he projects to struggle today, with 4.9 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed on average. The Reds' bullpen, ranked 23rd by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, further complicates their chances.

Offensively, both teams have had their challenges. The Cardinals rank 20th overall, while the Reds sit just above them at 19th in offensive performance. Notably, the Reds lead MLB in stolen bases, a contrast to their lower rankings in batting average and home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a strong 67% probability of winning today’s game, higher than their implied win probability of 63%. With the Cardinals projected to score 5.07 runs compared to the Reds' 3.70, St. Louis appears well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Spiers to throw 85 pitches in today's game (4th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Luke Maile, Stuart Fairchild).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

As it relates to his strikeout ability, Sonny Gray projects as the 17th-best starting pitcher in baseball right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 away games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.72 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.99

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