Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/27/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium on June 27, 2024, for the first game of a National League Central series. The Cardinals, sitting at 41-38, are having an above-average season, while the Reds, at 37-43, are struggling. This matchup features Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals and Andrew Abbott for the Reds, both right around average according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Mikolas, a right-hander, has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 4.59 ERA is higher than his 3.89 xFIP. He has a 5-6 record in 15 starts and projects to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.2 batters. Abbott, a lefty, has a more favorable 3.42 ERA, but his 4.74 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate. He also has a 5-6 record in 15 starts and similarly projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters.

The Cardinals come into this game off a solid 4-1 win against the Braves, while the Reds are looking to bounce back from a 6-1 loss to the Pirates. St. Louis's offense is ranked 20th in MLB, with an average team batting average of .250 and a weak ranking in home runs (21st). Meanwhile, Cincinnati's offense ranks 19th overall but struggles with a .227 team batting average, ranking 27th.

St. Louis has the edge in bullpen strength, ranked 10th compared to Cincinnati's 23rd. This could be crucial in what is projected to be a close game. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a 57% chance to win, higher than their implied win probability of 55%.

Key players to watch include St. Louis's Brendan Donovan, who has been the team's best hitter this season, and Alec Burleson, who has been on fire over the last week with a .524 batting average and a 1.494 OPS. For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz leads the team in several categories, while Jonathan India has been their standout hitter recently with a .571 batting average and a 1.654 OPS over the last week.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

St. Louis's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Miles Mikolas is projected to throw 84 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-most of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+6.55 Units / 12% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.72

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.