Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/21/2025

On June 21, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. The Cardinals currently sit at 41-35, enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds are just below .500 at 39-37, marking an average performance. In their last matchup, the Cardinals secured a convincing 6-1 victory, putting them in good spirits as they seek to continue their momentum.

Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for St. Louis, and he brings a strong profile with a 7-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.84. Although Gray had a rough outing in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over 4 innings, advanced metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky this season, projecting better performance going forward. His average projection of 5.5 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed suggests that he could be a handful for the Reds' lineup, which ranks 10th in MLB offensively but has recently struggled against quality pitching.

Conversely, Brent Suter is expected to start for Cincinnati. While he boasts an impressive ERA of 2.91, his advanced stats suggest that he could regress, as his xFIP sits at 4.38, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate this season. He also projects to pitch just 1.0 inning, which severely limits his impact.

For this matchup, St. Louis has the edge with an implied team total of 5.17 runs, while Cincinnati's total rests at a more modest 3.83 runs. With the Cardinals ranked 3rd in batting average and coming off a strong performance, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their home-field advantage and push for another win against a Reds team that might struggle to mount a serious challenge.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brent Suter has put up a .259 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Victor Scott II's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91-mph figure last season has lowered to 88.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

St. Louis Cardinals batters as a unit place 26th- in baseball for power this year when using their 7.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 62 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+19.20 Units / 57% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.54, St. Louis Cardinals 4.94

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brent Suter - Reds
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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