Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/20/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on June 20, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive National League Central matchup. The Cardinals currently sit at 40-35, while the Reds are just a game behind at 39-36. This game marks the first in a series that could have implications for both teams as they look to solidify their positions in the standings.

The Cardinals enter this series on a three-game winning streak, thanks in part to some impressive offense, scoring 25 runs in three games against the Chicago White Sox. This offensive momentum will be crucial as they face Reds pitcher Brady Singer, who has struggled according to advanced metrics, ranking as a below-average performer in the league.

On the mound for St. Louis will be Andre Pallante, who has had an average season with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.83. However, Pallante's 3.61 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve moving forward. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, which could bode well against a Reds lineup that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts.

The Cardinals' offense, ranked 12th overall and 4th in batting average, will look to exploit Singer's deficiencies. With a projected team total of 4.76 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Busch Stadium. Conversely, the Reds' offense, while ranked 10th overall, has been inconsistent, and their ability to produce against a pitcher like Pallante will be tested.

Overall, the Cardinals appear to have the edge in this matchup, especially considering their solid offensive performance and Pallante's potential for a better outing than his season statistics suggest.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (37.1% compared to 30.9% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.56, St. Louis Cardinals 4.75

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.