Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 9/16/2025
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will meet at Busch Stadium in a huge game on Tuesday night. The Reds won the first game of this series and they are just a couple of games out of a playoff spot going into this contest. Before these NL Wild Card contenders meet again, continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Reds vs Cardinals prediction.
Our Reds vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Reds Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, 2025, 7:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott vs Michael McGreevy
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- The Reds won the first game of this series to stay within two games of the final NL Wild Card spot. St. Louis dropped to 4.5 games back of that final playoff berth with their loss on Monday night.
- The pitching staff of St. Louis has struggled mightily in recent games. They have allowed eight runs or more in three of their last four games. The Cards will need to be better on the mound if they are going to avoid another costly loss here.
Pitching matchup
Andrew Abbott’s season has yielded a 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts in 151.2 innings pitched. His recent road form is strong and he just authored a win at Petco Park over the San Diego Padres. St. Louis is slightly below league average in run creation and Abbott’s fastball-curve combo could cause the Cards problems.
Michael McGreevy has held his own this season. He is 6-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 79 innings. He limits walks and lets his defense work, but his contact profile can allow crooked numbers if his sinker flattens out. Cincinnati’s hitters have performed better against righties this season, giving the road side a modest split advantage against McGreevy.
Recent team streaks
- The Reds ended a three-game losing streak by beating the Cardinals on Monday.
- The Cardinals have dropped four of their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Suggested Play |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 K |
| Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 TB |
| Alec Burleson | Total Bases | Over 1.5 TB |
| Michael McGreevy | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 K |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cardinals lead the season series against the Reds 6-5.
- Cincinnati has won two straight games against the Cardinals.
Reds vs Cardinals Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 5 – Cardinals 4
Win Probability: Reds 53%, Cardinals 47%
Final Thoughts
The Reds and Cardinals are both desperate for a win in this contest. I think the Reds are more likely to get that win in this huge spot. They have a higher ceiling with their starting pitching in this game and their offense is more likely to do consistent damage. I’ll take the Reds to win on the moneyline in what should be a competitive game from St. Louis.
