Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 6/22/2025

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Cincinnati Reds on June 22, 2025, in a pivotal National League Central matchup. Both teams are in the middle of the pack, with the Cardinals holding a record of 42-35 and the Reds at 39-38. This game marks the third in their series, with the pressure mounting as neither team is contending for the division title.

In their most recent outing, the Cardinals got the win, picking up their fifth victory in a row. St. Louis' offensive prowess has been uneven, ranking 12th overall but an impressive 4th in team batting average. However, they rank just 23rd in home runs, indicating a reliance on contact hitting rather than power.

Miles Mikolas is projected to start for St. Louis. Despite being ranked as the 189th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown flashes of potential, with a 4-4 record and a middling 4.35 ERA. The projections suggest he may perform better than his current statistics indicate, as his 3.72 FIP implies he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Mikolas faces a Reds lineup that strikes out frequently, which may play to his advantage as a low-strikeout pitcher.

For Cincinnati, Andrew Abbott has been a revelation, boasting a remarkable 1.84 ERA and a 6-1 record. Although he has had some good fortune—his xFIP sits at 3.92—his ability to limit runs has been crucial for the Reds.

This matchup presents an intriguing battle between Mikolas’ average performance and Abbott's excellent form. With both teams projected to score around 4.75 runs, bettors might view this as a closely contested game, ripe for strategic wagering.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.8% less often this season (47.7%) than he did last year (53.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Will Benson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 93.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .319 overall projected rate, the .308 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Cincinnati Reds projected offense in today's game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas' 91.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.6-mph decrease from last year's 93.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

St. Louis Cardinals hitters jointly place 26th- in MLB for power this year when using their 7.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 5.04, St. Louis Cardinals 4.87

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

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