Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 6/28/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will face off in the second game of their series on June 28, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This National League Central matchup features two teams with differing trajectories this season. The Cardinals, with a 41-39 record, are having an average season, while the Reds, at 38-43, are below average.

On the mound, the Cardinals will start right-hander Andre Pallante, who has had a mixed season with a 5.23 ERA but a more promising 4.07 xFIP, suggesting he's been somewhat unlucky. Pallante's 3-3 record and his tendency to allow too many hits and walks (projected 5.6 hits and 1.8 walks today) are areas of concern. However, the advanced-stat Power Rankings list him as the #118 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he's around average.

Opposing him will be the Reds' right-hander Frankie Montas, who holds a 4.62 ERA and a 3-5 record over 13 starts this season. Montas, also considered an average pitcher by the Power Rankings, is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.6 walks. His 4.6 strikeouts projection today is below average, which could be a factor against a Cardinals offense that ranks 17th in team batting average.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 20th overall but have been buoyed by the hot bat of Michael Siani, who has a .600 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over the last week. On the other side, the Reds' offense has been slightly better, ranking 19th overall. Jonathan India has been on fire, hitting .560 with a 1.593 OPS over the last seven games.

Bullpen performance favors St. Louis, ranked 8th, while Cincinnati's bullpen sits at 22nd. This could be pivotal in a game projected to be close, with the Cardinals holding a slight edge in win probability at 53% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Betting markets reflect this closely contested matchup, with the Cardinals' moneyline at -135 (implying a 55% win probability) and the Reds at +115 (implying a 45% win probability). With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive game that could hinge on bullpen effectiveness and clutch hitting.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With a 0.96 difference between Frankie Montas's 7.31 K/9 and his 8.27 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform better in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Stuart Fairchild has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Mike Siani has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 80.6-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games at home (+7.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 71 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.33 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.54

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