Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/15/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • George Kirby - Mariners
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -170, Mariners -1.5 145
• Money Line: Reds 130, Mariners -150
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 42%
• Seattle Mariners - 58%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 40.06%
• Seattle Mariners - 59.94%

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Seattle Mariners will take on the Cincinnati Reds on April 15, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a disappointing record of 6-10 this season, are hoping to turn their fortunes around against the surging Reds, who boast a stellar 9-6 record.

The Mariners will be the home team for this game, and they are expected to start right-handed pitcher George Kirby. Kirby, ranked as the #30 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a challenging start to the season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 8.16. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Kirby is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Reds offense, which could give him an advantage.

On the other side, the Reds will send Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas, an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings, has been impressive with a 2-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.16. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not continue to perform at such a high level. Montas is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Mariners offense, which could work in his favor.

This game marks the first matchup between the Mariners and Reds this season. Both teams will be looking to set the tone for the series with a strong performance. The Mariners offense has struggled this season, ranking as the #28 best in MLB, while the Reds offense has been more productive, ranking as the #12 best. The Mariners will rely on their best hitter, yet to be determined, to ignite their offense, while the Reds will look to Elly De La Cruz, their standout hitter over the last seven games.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Mariners rank #26 in MLB, while the Reds rank #21. This could be a factor to consider as the game progresses, especially if the starting pitchers are unable to go deep into the game.

According to the current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 57% chance of winning. The Reds, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125, indicating a 43% chance of winning. The implied team totals for this game are 4.06 runs for the Mariners and 3.44 runs for the Reds.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Over his last 3 games started, Frankie Montas has recorded a terrific ERA of 2.16.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Tallying 18.1 outs per GS since the start of last season on average, George Kirby places in the 96th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ty France's speed has dropped off this season. His 24.95 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.39 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Reds vs Mariners Prediction: Reds 3.36 - Mariners 3.91

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