Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 4/9/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on April 9, 2025, the Reds are the team with the momentum, having secured a victory in their last game between these teams. Sitting at 8-3, the Giants are enjoying a strong start to the season, particularly with their pitching staff leading the charge. In contrast, Cincinnati finds itself struggling with a 5-7 record, indicating a tough road ahead.

The Giants are projected to start Justin Verlander, who, despite a rough ERA of 6.14 this season, has an xFIP of 4.49, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky and may perform better as the season progresses. Verlander’s ability to strike out 6.0 batters on average while allowing just 2.2 earned runs indicates he has the potential to thwart a struggling Reds lineup that ranks 26th in MLB offense, including a dismal 25th in team batting average.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Nick Martinez, who has yet to secure a win this year, holding a 0-2 record and an ERA of 5.91. This season, Martinez has shown vulnerabilities, highlighted by a projection of 5.0 hits allowed on average, which could prove costly against a Giants offense that, while average overall, ranks higher in power metrics, standing 13th in home runs.

With the Giants boasting the 2nd best bullpen in MLB and the Reds at 21st, the matchups favor San Francisco once more as they seek to continue their impressive momentum against a team that has yet to find its footing this year.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Reds projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .320 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Wilmer Flores has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 86.4-mph average to last year's 83.5-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+8.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 130 games (+14.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Austin Wynns has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.10 Units / 24% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.