Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 4/8/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to host the Cincinnati Reds at Oracle Park on April 8, 2025, in what is the second game of their series. The Giants currently hold a strong 8-2 record this season, while the Reds sit at a disappointing 4-7. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially as the Reds continue to struggle, especially offensively.

In their last game, the Reds defeated the Giants 2-0. San Francisco's projected starter, Landen Roupp, has had a rocky start with an ERA of 6.75, but his xFIP of 3.93 suggests he may be due for better luck. Roupp's high walk rate of 20.0% could be a concern, but he faces a Reds offense that ranks 3rd least in walks, potentially giving him an edge in this matchup.

On the other hand, Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo has been impressive with a 1.42 ERA and a 1-1 record this season. However, his xFIP of 4.27 indicates that he might not sustain this level of performance. Both pitchers are projected to have average outings today, with Roupp expected to pitch 4.9 innings and Lodolo 5.5 innings.

The Giants' bullpen ranks 2nd best in MLB, providing them with a significant advantage late in the game. Despite their offensive struggles, the projections suggest the Giants have a better chance to outperform their implied total of 3.93 runs. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could be tightly contested, making it a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Nick Lodolo (45.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in San Francisco's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Jacob Hurtubise usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Landen Roupp.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Cincinnati Reds projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

With a 0.45 difference between Landen Roupp's 3.81 ERA and his 3.37 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season and should see better results going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Wilmer Flores is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 134 games (+14.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.25 Units / 38% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Landen Roupp - Giants

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