Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/19/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are set to face off on June 19, 2024, at PNC Park in the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, sporting identical 35-38 records and sitting in the lower half of the National League Central standings. The Pirates dropped a close game to the Reds yesterday, losing 2-1.

On the mound for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller, who has been solid this season with an 8-4 record and a 3.36 ERA. However, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate and might regress. Keller's last outing was uneventful, as he allowed four earned runs over six innings. He’s projected to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.7 walks, while striking out 5.9 batters.

Hunter Greene takes the hill for the Reds. Greene has been impressive with a 5-2 record and a 3.61 ERA, though his 4.36 xFIP indicates he’s also been somewhat lucky. In his last start, Greene pitched well, giving up two earned runs in five innings, despite issuing five walks. He’s projected to go 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 2.1 walks, while striking out 6.5 batters.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB overall. Their key player, Bryan Reynolds, has posted a .274 batting average and a .784 OPS this season. Andrew McCutchen has been hot over the last week, hitting .318 with two home runs and a 1.082 OPS.

The Reds' offense is more balanced, ranking 18th overall, but they excel in stolen bases, leading MLB. Elly De La Cruz has been their standout hitter, boasting a .781 OPS with 12 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Jeimer Candelario has been on fire recently, hitting .417 with three home runs over the last week.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Pirates slightly favored at -115, implying a 51% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Pirates a 52% chance to win, aligning closely with the betting odds. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, with the Pirates projected to score 4.71 runs and the Reds 4.76 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 97.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Santiago Espinal has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 15.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal higher than his 5.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average hurler, Mitch Keller has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Connor Joe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.76 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.71

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.