Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 8/9/2025
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet on Saturday for the third game in their four-game series. The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series at home and will look for a third straight over their NL Central rivals tonight. Before these teams take the field in Pittsburgh, you can continue reading to get my Reds vs Pirates prediction.
Our Reds vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 9, 2025, 6:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Cincinnati: Nick Martinez (9-9, 4.66 ERA)
- Pittsburgh: Braxton Ashcraft (3-2, 3.24 ERA)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: SportsNet-PIT, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Nick Martinez brings more experience than Braxton Ashcraft going into this game. The Reds’ starter also brings a middling ERA of 4.66 on the year. Pittsburgh’s Ashcraft has a lower 3.24 ERA but has only pitched 33.1 innings on the year. Ashcraft is allowing just over a hit per inning and that could be a concern for the Pirates here.
Key Players
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN): De La Cruz is the offensive catalyst for the Reds and leads them in the big three offensive categories.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT): Reynolds is coming off a game where he hit a two-run triple that provided the go-ahead runs for the Pirates.
Wild Card Situation
The Reds are 60-57 overall and hover just outside the three NL Wild Card spots. They enter Saturday 3.5 games behind the Mets for the final place in the National League playoffs. They can’t afford to keep losing games to teams like the Pirates if they want to see October baseball.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Bryan Reynolds | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Nick Martinez | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 4-4 going into tonight.
- The Pirates have won the last four meetings between these teams after Cincinnati won the first four meetings of the season.
- The Reds have scored three total runs in their last four meetings with the Pirates.
Reds vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 5 – Pirates 3
Win Probability: Reds 57%, Pirates 43%
Final Thoughts
Whichever way you think this game is going to go, the under seems to be the best play no matter who wins. The Reds have really struggled on offense of late against the Pirates. And with the Pirates’ offense prone to some struggles of their own, I don’t see this game reaching the 8.5 run total. I’ll bet the under instead of trusting either of these teams to pick up a win.
