Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 8/8/2025
The Cincinnati Reds will face the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night in National League Central showdown at PNC Park. The Pirates won the first game of this series behind another strong performance from the great Paul Skenes. The Reds will now look to help their NL Wild Card chances with Skenes out of the way. Before these division rivals do battle on the diamond, keep reading to get my Reds vs Pirates prediction.
Our Reds vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Reds moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Friday, August 8, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. Chase Burns (CIN)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Friday’s matchup pits Mitch Keller (5-10, 3.89 ERA) against Chase Burns (0-3, 6.04 ERA). Keller is coming off of a rough outing for the Pirates. He gave up five earned runs at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies on August 3. Keller will look to rebound now that he isn’t pitching at altitude. Burns has 47 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. But he has been roughed up when he isn’t striking opposing hitters out.
Key Players
- Oneil Cruz (PIT): Cruz is Pittsburgh’s team leader in homers (18) and a dangerous bat with upside against Burns at home.
- Reds lineup vs Pittsburgh pitching: The Reds were shutout by the Pirates on Friday night. The Reds aren’t facing Paul Skenes this game but will still need to be better to generate offense.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Pirates are 3-2 in their last five games. They snapped a two-game losing streak with Friday’s win over Cincinnati.
- Cincinnati has dropped two games in a row entering this contest. They are 2-3 in their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Chase Burns | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
| Mitch Keller | Outs Recorded | Over 17.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cincinnati leads the season series between these teams by a 4-3 margin.
- Pittsburgh has won three straight games between the Reds and Pirates.
- The over cashed in Friday’s series opener. But that total was just 6.5 runs thanks to Skenes’ presence on the mound for the Pirates.
Reds vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Cincinnati 4 – Pittsburgh 3
Win Probability: Reds 52%, Pirates 48%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting a much closer game between the Reds and Pirates than we saw on Friday night. Without Skenes on the mound, I expect the Reds to be much more competitive offensively in this game. Chase Burns has struggled but also has the kind of stuff that will allow him to rack up strikeouts. I think Burns keeps the Reds competitive in this game and they get the victory in what is more or less a pick ’em game depending on which sportsbook you look at.
