Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 5/19/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on May 19, 2025, at PNC Park, both teams find themselves in different realms of mediocrity. The Pirates, with a record of 15-32, are struggling considerably, currently holding the position of 5th in the National League Central. Meanwhile, the Reds sit at .500 with a record of 24-24, maintaining the 3rd spot in the same division. The matchup holds significance for both squads as they seek to gain momentum.

In their last game, the Reds got a 3-1 win, doing just enough offensively to get the victory. Conversely, the Pirates’ offense continues to falter, ranking 29th in MLB in team batting average and home runs, indicating severe difficulties in generating runs.

On the mound, Pirates’ ace Mitch Keller is projected to start, bringing a Win/Loss record of 1-5 and an average ERA of 4.15. While Keller's statistics hint at some unlucky breaks, he faces a Reds lineup that is known for its high strikeout rate, which could favor him in this matchup. Nick Lodolo on the other hand, bringing a solid 3.42 ERA and an average Win/Loss record of 3-4, reflects a more consistent starter for Cincinnati.

With betting odds leaning towards the Reds at -130, the Pirates are expected to put up a fight, especially considering they are seeking to break their recent slump. The projections indicate a close game, with both teams aiming to capitalize on their respective strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball bats, Nick Lodolo and his 45.1% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today's outing matching up with 2 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller has utilized his slider 8.8% more often this year (33.9%) than he did last year (25.1%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alexander Canario, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 54% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.73, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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