Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Pirates are struggling significantly this season with a record of 16-33, while the Reds are hovering around .500 at 25-25. With both teams looking to gain momentum, this matchup holds importance for the Pirates as they attempt to turn their season around.

In their last game, the Pirates managed a rare win against the Reds, with Pittsburgh looking to build on that result today. Pittsburgh's offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB, showcasing their struggles at the plate. They have managed only 33 home runs this season, the 2nd least in the league, which is a stark contrast to the Reds, who rank 11th in home runs. This stark disparity could play a significant role in today's game.

Andrew Heaney is projected to take the mound for the Pirates, boasting a solid 3.02 ERA this year. However, his xFIP of 4.35 suggests he might have been fortunate thus far. Heaney will face a Reds lineup that has been proficient at racking up strikeouts, which could be advantageous for him as he has a low strikeout rate of 18.2 K%. On the other hand, Brady Singer will start for the Reds. While his ERA sits at a less impressive 5.01, his xFIP indicates he might see improvement in his performance going forward.

With the Reds holding the edge in offensive capabilities and the Pirates struggling to find consistency, the projections favor Cincinnati. However, the Pirates' recent performances suggest that they may be due for a breakout, making this matchup an intriguing watch for bettors looking for potential value.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer's slider utilization has fallen by 10.8% from last season to this one (45.5% to 34.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's 89.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 2.1-mph fall off from last year's 91.5-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Over the last week, Andrew McCutchen's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.81, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.31

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.