Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On August 25, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. Both teams are mired in below-average seasons, with the Pirates currently holding a record of 61-68, while the Reds sit slightly ahead at 63-67. This matchup is crucial as both teams strive to improve amidst disappointing campaigns.

In their last game, the Pirates fell short against the Reds, with the Reds scoring 10 runs in their offensive explosion yesterday. With Luis Ortiz slated to start for Pittsburgh, the Pirates hope to turn things around after Ortiz’s solid performance this season, despite his low ranking as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB. His 3.56 ERA suggests he has been effective, but his xFIP of 4.70 indicates that luck may have played a significant role in his success.

On the mound for the Reds will be Nick Martinez, who's been performing at an average level, boasting a 3.64 ERA. Despite both pitchers having modest strikeout rates, Ortiz will face a Reds offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts, presenting an interesting dynamic. Conversely, Martinez will challenge a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts as well, emphasizing a battle of low-strikeout pitchers against high-strikeout offenses.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates are expected to score an average of 5.00 runs in this game, while the Reds have an even higher projection at 5.18 runs. This disparity suggests that the Reds might have a slight edge offensively, making them a team to watch as they look to build on their recent success. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should anticipate a closely contested matchup that could hinge on the performances of these two pitchers.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (59.7% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Noelvi Marte has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 75.7-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Placing 2nd-steepest in Major League Baseball this year, Cincinnati Reds batters jointly have posted a 16.1° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable metric to measure power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (94.3 mph) below where it was last season (95.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.2) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year with his 22.9 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Pittsburgh Pirates bats collectively rank 9th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 8.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 123 games (+8.25 Units / 5% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.10 Units / 46% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 5.06 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5

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