Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/2/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds prepare for their July 2, 2024 showdown at Yankee Stadium, the stakes are clear. The Yankees are having a stellar season with a 54-32 record, firmly in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Reds are struggling with a 39-45 record, having a below-average season.

In their last outing, the Yankees showcased their offensive might, propelled by Aaron Judge who has been on fire over the past week, boasting a .524 batting average and a 1.615 OPS over six games. The Reds, on the other hand, saw Jonathan India shine with a .538 batting average and a 1.536 OPS over the past seven games.

On the mound, the Yankees will start Luis Gil, who has been solid this season with a 9-3 record and a 3.15 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gil ranks as the 48th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers, suggesting he's been reliable. However, his 4.13 xFIP hints that he might have been somewhat fortunate so far. Gil is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, striking out 7.2 batters, but also giving up 4.0 hits and 2.4 walks.

Opposing him is Graham Ashcraft for the Reds, who has had a tougher season with a 4-4 record and a 5.45 ERA. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests he might have been unlucky and could improve. The projections have Ashcraft pitching 5.5 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and conceding 5.7 hits and 2.0 walks. Notably, Ashcraft's high groundball rate (48%) could neutralize some of the Yankees' power, as they rank 2nd in MLB with 123 home runs.

Offensively, the Yankees are a powerhouse, ranking 3rd overall, 8th in team batting average, and 2nd in home runs. However, their 27th rank in stolen bases is a glaring weakness. The Reds, while ranking 22nd overall in offense, excel in speed, leading MLB in stolen bases.

The Yankees bullpen ranks 21st, while the Reds' bullpen is 25th, indicating potential late-game vulnerabilities for both teams. With the Yankees being a considerable betting favorite at -185, the game promises to be an intriguing matchup, especially given the projected high run total of 8.5.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Graham Ashcraft’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2469 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2410 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Jake Fraley's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 83.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 80.5-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Gil has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 3.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball bats like DJ LeMahieu usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+14.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.40 Units / 92% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.9 vs New York Yankees 5.12

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