Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 7/3/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees and the Cincinnati Reds prepare to clash at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing interleague matchup. The Yankees, boasting a stellar 54-32 record, are enjoying a fantastic season, while the Reds, at 39-45, are struggling to find their groove. The Reds took the most recent of the series yesterday, however, which adds some extra intrigue to this game.

The Yankees are projected to send Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon, a left-handed pitcher, has been solid this year with a 9-5 record and an ERA of 4.42 across 17 starts. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he ranks as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an above-average option. On the flip side, the Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott, also a southpaw. Abbott has posted a commendable 3.41 ERA in 16 starts this season, compiling a 7-6 record. However, his 4.78 xFIP suggests he might have been fortunate and could regress as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Yankees hold a significant edge. Their lineup ranks 3rd best in MLB, powered by their prolific home run output, ranking 2nd with 123 homers. Although their team batting average is a respectable .268 (8th), they lack speed on the base paths, ranking 27th in stolen bases. Aaron Judge has been red-hot, batting .524 with 3 home runs and 12 RBIs over the last week.

The Reds, conversely, rank 22nd in offense and struggle in key areas like team batting average (.241, 24th) and home runs (22nd). Their one bright spot is their baserunning prowess, leading MLB in stolen bases. Jonathan India has been a consistent performer recently, hitting .500 with a 1.441 OPS over the past week.

The Yankees' bullpen, ranked 19th, should provide a slight edge over the Reds' 24th ranked pen. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts the Yankees as a big favorite with a 64% win probability, while the betting odds set their implied win probability at 63%. The Yankees are expected to score 5.28 runs, compared to the Reds' 4.09 runs.

Considering the Yankees' powerful offense and Rodon's above-average pitching against an average Reds lineup and a potentially regressing Abbott, backing the Yankees seems the prudent choice.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (55 compared to 50% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Jeimer Candelario is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Yankees's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+14.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 32 away games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games at home (+7.95 Units / 133% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.81 vs New York Yankees 5.17

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.