Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Julian Aguiar - Reds
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds visit Citi Field to face the New York Mets on September 8, 2024, both teams are looking to establish their momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. The Mets currently sit at 78-64, positioning themselves well above average, while the Reds are struggling at 68-75, reflecting a below-average performance this year.

In their last outing, the Mets showcased their offensive firepower with a commanding victory, further solidifying their status as one of the eight best offenses in MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds have had a rough time at the plate, ranking 27th in batting average and relying on their speed as they boast the 1st best stolen base ranking.

Starting for the Mets is Luis Severino, who has had an inconsistent season despite a respectable ERA of 3.84. While he ranks as the 135th best starting pitcher, his projected performance today indicates he may struggle with allowing an average of 5.0 hits and 2.4 earned runs over 5.6 innings. On the other side, Julian Aguiar for the Reds has an alarming ERA of 6.48 and a SIERA of 5.74, suggesting he might face significant challenges against a powerful Mets lineup that has already hit 132 home runs this season, ranking 4th in the league.

Interestingly, projections favor the Mets, who are given an implied team total of 4.69 runs compared to the Reds' low 3.31 runs. THE BAT X projects the Mets to score around 4.62 runs today, indicating a favorable matchup against Aguiar, whose high flyball rate could play right into the Mets' strengths. With the Mets as significant betting favorites, there may be value in considering the Reds as underdogs, especially with Aguiar potentially overperforming his recent metrics.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

As a result of his large platoon split, Julian Aguiar will be in a good position matching up with 6 bats in the projected offense who share his handedness in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Spencer Steer, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 109 games (+15.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 108 games (+7.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+14.10 Units / 235% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.11 vs New York Mets 4.62

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