Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jakob Junis - Reds
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds face off on September 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Mets, with a record of 77-64, are enjoying an above-average season and are currently a strong contender in the National League. Meanwhile, the Reds sit at 68-74, battling through a below-average campaign.

In their previous matchup, the Mets showcased their prowess against the Reds, solidifying their status as the 10th best offense in MLB in terms of overall talent. The Mets rank 4th in team home runs, a significant advantage as they face off against Reds pitcher Jakob Junis, who, while boasting a solid 3.13 ERA, has shown signs of vulnerability with a higher projected xFIP of 4.02.

Starting for the Mets is Jose Quintana, a left-handed pitcher with a 4.27 ERA. Although his overall numbers may appear average, his low strikeout rate of 17.9% could play in his favor against a Reds offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts. Ironically, Quintana's potential disadvantage may become an advantage, allowing him to exploit the Reds' high strikeout propensity.

In terms of projections, the leading MLB projection system suggests that the Mets are favored to score 5.05 runs, while the Reds are projected to tally around 4.58 runs. This reflects both teams’ offensive capabilities, with the Mets’ lineup being significantly more potent.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jonathan India has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 84.1-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tallying 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jose Quintana places in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos's true offensive skill to be a .317, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .055 disparity between that mark and his actual .372 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Mets have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 86 games (+18.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 133 games (+10.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.59 vs New York Mets 4.99

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.