The Cincinnati Reds took advantage of a fragile Mets bullpen to win the series opener between these teams on Friday night. These National League teams will do battle again on Saturday night as the Mets look to even this weekend series at a game apiece. Continue reading to get my Reds vs Mets prediction and find out if I think New York can get even with the Reds in this matchup.
Our Reds vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Mets –1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 19, 2025, 4:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Mets: Clay Holmes (8–4, 3.31 ERA)
- Reds: Nick Martinez (7–9, 4.78 ERA)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network, SNY, FDSOH
Reds vs Mets Odds
| Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|
| Reds +148 | Over 9 (-101) |
| Mets -181 | Under 9 (-120) |
Key Storylines
Pitching Form
- Clay Holmes: Holmes has an 8–4 record and a 3.31 ERA overall. The most important thing for Holmes today will be his longevity after the Mets bullpen was asked to do a lot in relief of Sean Manaea on Friday night.
- Nick Martinez: Martinez is 7–9 with a 4.78 ERA for the season. Martinez pitches to contact, with just 76 strikeouts in 111 innings of work. That could be a problem against a dangerous Mets lineup.
- Mets bullpen: The Mets were asked to pitch nearly five full innings out of the bullpen on Friday night. They will need Holmes to give them a breather for most of this game to maximize their chances of winning.
- Reds bullpen: The Reds got two scoreless innings out of their bullpen on Friday. Starter Nick Lodolo made life easy on them by throwing seven innings. The Cincinnati pen may not be able to count on a similar showing from Martinez tonight.
Recent Team Streaks
- Reds: Cincinnati has won three straight games entering today’s action.
- Mets: The Mets have dropped two games in a row coming into today.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto (Mets) | Over 0.5 HR |
| Elly De La Cruz (Reds) | Over 1.5 total bases |
| Austin Hays (Reds) | Over 1.5 total bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cincinnati leads the season series 1-0 after Friday’s win at Citi Field.
- Day games: The Reds are 22-22 in day games this season. The Mets are 21-17 during the day.
- Cincinnati is 23-25 on the road this year. The Mets are 33-15 at home despite Friday’s loss.
Reds vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 5 – Reds 3
Win Probability: Mets 60%, Reds 40%
Final Thoughts
I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from the Mets today. They should get more from their starting pitching than they did in the opening game of this series. That will mean less work for their bullpen and a lower-scoring outing for the Reds. Expect New York to win and cover the runline in this game, as they look to get back ahead of the Phillies in the NL East standings by the end of the day.
