Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Pick – 7/18/2025

The Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets start the second half of their seasons against each other on Friday night. Both of these teams are over the .500 mark for the season entering this game. They both still have playoff aspirations and will look to move closer to October baseball with a win here. Continue reading to get my Reds vs Mets prediction for Friday night in Queens.

Our Reds vs Mets Pick

• Pick: Reds moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
• Date & Time: Friday, July 18, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo vs. Sean Manaea
• Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Broadcast: SNY, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio

Key Storylines

1. Starting Pitching: Lodolo has been solid for the Reds so far this season. He has a 3.38 ERA and 8.2 K/9 over 106.2 innings. Sean Manaea makes his return to the starting rotation for the Mets tonight. Manaea has seven strikeouts in 3.1 innings of work for the season. But the question going into this game will be whether he can go deep enough to avoid putting the Mets bullpen under pressure.
2. Health and Depth: The Mets expect to have both Manaea and Frankie Montas back on a consistent basis to finish out the regular season. This could be huge for the Mets if it all pans out. But if those two starters fail to last deep into games, the Mets bullpen could struggle to keep up with the increased workload.
3. Lineup Matchups: Both teams have left-handed starting pitchers on the bump for this game. So far this season the Reds have not been great against left-handed pitching. But they might not see enough of Manaea for that to be a significant factor.

Recent Team Streaks

• Reds: 4‑1 in their last five games. But it should be noted that those games were against the Rockies and Marlins.
• Mets: The Mets are 2-3 in their last five games but won two out of three against the Royals to close out their first half.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first game of a six-game regular-season series between these teams.
• Both of these teams have gone under the total in over 54% of their games for the year.
• The Reds are 51-46 on the runline this year. New York is 48-49 on the runline in their games.

Reds vs Mets Model Projection

Score Projection: Reds 5 – Mets 4

Win Probability: Reds 51%, Mets 49%

Final Thoughts

I think that starting pitching will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game. Lodolo is an arm that I can rely on more than Manaea at this stage of the season. And while the Mets may have more top-end talent in their lineup, I’m not sure that’s enough to make up for Cincinnati’s pitching edge tonight. I’ll go with the Reds to win as an underdog in New York on Friday.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.