Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Rhett Lowder - Reds
  • David Festa - Twins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 15, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this Interleague matchup. The Twins enter this game with a solid 78-70 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Reds sit at 73-77, marking them as an average team this year.

In their last outing, the Reds delivered a strong performance, beating the Twins 11-1. The Twins are projected to start David Festa. Meanwhile, the Reds will counter with Rhett Lowder, a right-handed pitcher. Although Lowder boasts an impressive ERA of 0.59, advanced metrics suggest he may have been riding some luck, as his xFIP sits at a concerning 4.46. This indicates a potential for regression, especially against a potent Twins offense ranked 9th in MLB.

The projections favor the Twins, with expectations of scoring around 5.52 runs, which indicates their offensive capabilities. On the contrary, the Reds, who rank 19th in MLB, are projected to score around 4.66 runs. This places the Twins in a strong position, especially given their recent offensive surge led by Kyle Farmer, who has been the hottest hitter over the last week.

With the Twins being a betting favorite at -160 and an implied team total of 4.68 runs, they look to capitalize on Lowder's vulnerabilities while leveraging their own offensive strengths. As both teams vie for their footing in the final stretch of the season, this matchup could be crucial for setting the tone heading into the last weeks of play.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Rhett Lowder has compiled a terrific 0.59 ERA over his last 3 GS.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Matt Wallner has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year's 97.1-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.66 vs Minnesota Twins 5.52

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