Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins host the Cincinnati Reds at Target Field on September 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in terms of performance and standings. The Twins currently hold a record of 78-69, showcasing an above-average season, while the Reds sit at 72-77, struggling with a below-average record. Despite the Twins' success, there’s pressure to maintain momentum as they aim for postseason positioning.

In their last meeting in this series, the Twins were bested, and they look to rebound behind pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson. This season, Woods Richardson has compiled a 5-4 record with a solid 3.96 ERA, despite being projected to pitch just 4.7 innings today. His performance has been somewhat deceptive, as his 4.59 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. On the other side, the Reds will counter with Nick Martinez, who boasts a great 3.46 ERA and an average projected outing of 5.0 innings.

Offensively, the Twins rank as the 8th best in MLB, leading in home runs, which bodes well as they face a Reds lineup that ranks 20th overall. While the Reds can capitalize on their speed, ranking 2nd in MLB for stolen bases, their overall lack of offense, especially in batting average where they rank 26th, hampers their scoring potential.

Despite the projections favoring the Twins with a high implied team total of 4.62 runs, their recent performance indicates a close game could unfold. The leading MLB projection system suggests the Twins have a notable chance, with projections indicating they will score nearly 5 runs on average. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing clash as the Reds aim to upset the favored Twins.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez has tallied 15.1 outs per outing this year, placing in the 23rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Santiago Espinal has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 6.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Placing steepest in the majors this year, Cincinnati Reds batters jointly have posted a 16.5° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable standard to study power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged squaring off against 6 same-handed bats in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Carlos Santana has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.68 vs Minnesota Twins 4.79

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