Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Julian Aguiar - Reds
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 13, 2024, the significance of this interleague matchup is amplified by their contrasting seasons. The Twins, boasting a record of 78-68, have positioned themselves as above average, while the Reds sit at 71-77, struggling to find their footing and ranked among the lower tiers of the league.

The Twins will hand the ball to Bailey Ober, who has shown solid form with a Win/Loss record of 12-6 and a respectable ERA of 3.77. Ober's advanced stats suggest he has faced some misfortune, with a 3.27 xERA indicating he might be due for an even stronger performance. His projected 5.2 innings of work today, alongside an estimated 2.3 earned runs allowed, paints a picture of a pitcher who can effectively manage the Reds' offense.

In contrast, Julian Aguiar will take the mound for the Reds, and his numbers are less encouraging. With just 5 starts and a troubling ERA of 5.06, Aguiar's projections indicate he may struggle today, likely allowing 2.9 earned runs in only 4.4 innings of work. His elevated xFIP of 6.11 suggests he has benefited from good fortune thus far, and it appears his luck may run out against a potent Twins lineup.

While the Twins have been inconsistent, their offense ranks 11th in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs with a 10th-place ranking. They are led by Kyle Farmer, who has been on fire lately, contributing significantly with 6 hits and 2 home runs over the past week.

The Reds, on the other hand, feature a lineup that ranks 26th in batting average, indicating a struggle to consistently generate offense. Despite their ability to steal bases, their overall performance has left much to be desired.

With the Reds' pitching woes and the Twins' offensive strengths, this game offers an intriguing betting opportunity. The projections favor the Twins to capitalize on their home-field advantage against a vulnerable Reds squad.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Minnesota Twins have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Julian Aguiar today, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 17th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Wallner has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last season's 97.1-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Today, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.5% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games at home (+10.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 132 games (+12.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.47 vs Minnesota Twins 5.75

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