Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 8/10/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on August 10, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Brewers, boasting a solid record of 66-49, are looking to strengthen their position in the division, while the Reds sit at 56-60, struggling to find consistency this season.

In their last outing, the Brewers faced off against the Reds and came away with a convincing victory, providing momentum as they look to build on their recent success. The Brewers' offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB, highlighted by a 5th place standing in team batting average. In contrast, the Reds' offense has been average overall at 16th, but they have struggled significantly in batting average, ranking 27th in the league. This disparity could prove crucial when the two lineups face off.

On the mound, the Brewers will start Tobias Myers, who has been inconsistent this season despite a respectable 3.02 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.15 suggests a regression could be on the horizon, particularly against a Reds lineup that has shown flashes of power with a 13th place ranking in team home runs. Nick Martinez, slated to take the mound for Cincinnati, comes in as an average pitcher with a 3.43 ERA, but he will have to contend with a Brewers offense that ranks 3rd in walks drawn, which could neutralize his low-walk tendencies.

The projections favor the Brewers, predicting they will score around 4.84 runs while limiting the Reds to 4.54 runs. With their playoff hunt in mind and a superior offensive performance compared to the Reds, Milwaukee will aim to capitalize on this opportunity to solidify their standing as they push towards the postseason.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 87.9-mph seasonal average has lowered to 78.8-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average hurler, Tobias Myers has been granted a below-average leash this year, throwing an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (13.2) provides evidence that Jackson Chourio has experienced some positive variance this year with his 22.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Milwaukee Brewers in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 away games (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.5 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.8

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