Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/11/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • D.L. Hall - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 11, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Brewers sit comfortably at 67-49, showcasing a solid season, while the Reds trail at 56-61, struggling to find consistency. This game follows a tense affair yesterday, where the Brewers edged the Reds 1-0, marking an impressive shutout for Milwaukee's pitching staff.

On the mound, the Brewers will hand the ball to D.L. Hall, who has had a rocky season with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an alarming ERA of 7.71. Hall's recent outings have seen him struggle, including an abbreviated start where he lasted just 4 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. His ability to limit walks, with an average of 1.7 projected today, could be tested against a Reds lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts. Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo, projected to start for Cincinnati, boasts a respectable 9-4 record and a solid 3.93 ERA. His ability to control the game with a low walk rate (6.7 BB%) may challenge the Brewers' high-walk offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB.

Despite Hall's struggles, the projections suggest that the Brewers have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, indicating confidence in their offensive capabilities. In contrast, the Reds’ offense, ranked 16th overall, has been inconsistent, although Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot, contributing significantly over the past week.

With the Brewers ranked 2nd in team stolen bases and their offense showing depth, they look to capitalize on their home advantage and continue their winning momentum against a Reds squad seeking to turn their fortunes around.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.4% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

When it comes to his home runs, Santiago Espinal has had positive variance on his side this year. His 19.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Lodolo has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.8 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.65

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.