Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/14/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds gear up for their June 14, 2024, showdown at American Family Field, there's plenty to dissect for sports bettors eyeing this National League Central matchup. The Brewers, currently sitting at 40-28, are enjoying a stellar season and are in contention for a top playoff spot. The Reds, at 33-35, hover around .500, reflecting a rather average season so far.

Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee, and he's been nothing short of elite according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, which place him at 10th among approximately 350 starting pitchers. Peralta, a right-hander, boasts a 4-3 record and a 3.95 ERA this year. However, his 3.22 xFIP suggests that he's been a bit unlucky and could perform even better going forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipates Peralta will average 5.6 innings pitched while allowing 1.9 earned runs and striking out 7.5 batters—a great projection for any pitcher.

Facing Peralta will be Hunter Greene for the Reds. Greene, also a right-hander, holds a 4-2 record with a respectable 3.61 ERA. His xFIP of 4.23 implies he’s been a bit fortunate, and we might expect some regression. Greene’s tendency to issue walks (10.0 BB%) could be particularly problematic against a patient Brewers lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in walks.

Milwaukee's offense has been one of the best this season, ranking 5th overall according to Power Rankings and 4th in team batting average. However, they are just 14th in home runs, showcasing more of a balanced approach. Christian Yelich has been the hot hand, hitting .429 with a .956 OPS over the past week.

On the flip side, Cincinnati’s offense struggles, ranking 20th overall and 27th in team batting average. Despite these woes, they do have power potential, ranking 17th in home runs, and they are 2nd in stolen bases. Jeimer Candelario has been a bright spot recently, batting .300 with three homers and a 1.100 OPS over the last week.

With the Brewers as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they appear to have a solid chance to take the first game of the series. THE BAT X projects Milwaukee to score about 4.01 runs compared to Cincinnati's 3.49, aligning with the Brewers' status as the stronger team on paper.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 97-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This year, there has been a decline in Blake Perkins's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.02 ft/sec last year to 29.43 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.44 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.24

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