Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/6/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On August 6, 2024, the Miami Marlins are set to host the Cincinnati Reds at LoanDepot Park in the second game of their series. In their previous matchup, the Marlins faced a tough defeat against the Reds, losing 10-3, marking another setback in an already disappointing season for Miami. With a record of 42-71, the Marlins have struggled significantly, particularly with an offense that ranks 29th in MLB.

The Reds, holding a record of 54-58, are also underperforming but show some promise, especially with their standout pitcher Nick Lodolo projected to take the mound. Lodolo has been solid this season with an 8-4 record and a 3.99 ERA. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (48% groundball rate) will be crucial against a Marlins offense that lacks power, ranking 29th in home runs.

Max Meyer is projected to start for the Marlins. Although his ERA of 3.81 this season is respectable, his 5.13 FIP indicates some potential struggles ahead, suggesting he may not be as effective as his current numbers imply. With the Marlins' offense struggling, Meyer will need to limit damage on his end, facing a Reds lineup that, while not exceptional, does have some pop, ranking 13th in home runs.

Interestingly, based on the leading MLB projection system, the projections show the Marlins could have a higher chance of winning today than the betting market suggests. This could indicate value in considering the Marlins as underdogs, especially given their potential motivation to rebound after yesterday's loss. As both teams look to find their footing in an otherwise lackluster season, today's matchup promises to be pivotal in determining their direction moving forward.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2271 rpm) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (2360 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.6) implies that T.J. Friedl has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 19.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+17.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Nick Lodolo has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 7 away games (+8.15 Units / 94% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.48 vs Miami Marlins 4.29

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