Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 4/23/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 23, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Cincinnati Reds at LoanDepot Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are currently struggling, with the Marlins holding an 11-12 record and the Reds slightly behind at 11-13. Neither team is in contention for a division title, but both are looking to turn their seasons around.

In their last game, the Marlins were able to secure a win against the Reds, bringing them into today on a three-game winning streak. The Marlins' offense ranks 12th overall in MLB, buoyed by a strong batting average that places them 3rd in the league. However, their power numbers are lacking, as they sit 23rd in home runs. This inconsistency could be a factor as they face a Reds team that has been more effective offensively, ranking 8th overall.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Sandy Alcantara, who has had a rocky season thus far. Although he ranks 35th among starting pitchers according to advanced stats, his ERA of 7.27 suggests he has been quite unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.43. Alcantara's ability to pitch deep into games—projected at 6.2 innings—could be crucial, especially considering the Marlins' bullpen ranks 29th in the league.

Brady Singer, set to take the mound for the Reds, has been a bright spot for Cincinnati with a 3-0 record and a solid ERA of 3.38. His performance will be key, especially against a Marlins lineup that has shown flashes of potential but struggles with consistency.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, reflected in Miami's moneyline of -135 and Cincinnati's +115. The projections indicate the Marlins could score around 4.50 runs, while the Reds are expected to tally an average of 4.00 runs. This matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially given the Marlins' higher implied team total despite their recent struggles.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among all starters, Brady Singer's fastball velocity of 91.4 mph is in the 16th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake Fraley has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 7.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Wynns, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Throwing 82.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Sandy Alcantara falls in the 23rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph EV last season has dropped off to 82.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.26, Miami Marlins 4.12

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

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