Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 4/22/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Cincinnati Reds at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are currently struggling, with the Marlins holding a record of 10-12 and the Reds slightly ahead at 11-12. This game marks the second in their series, following the Marlins' victory in the first game.

Edward Cabrera, projected to start for the Marlins, has had a rough start to the season, carrying a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.52. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests he could be due for better results, indicating he may have been unlucky in his outings. Cabrera's ability to strike out batters will be crucial, as he projects to average 5.5 strikeouts today, though he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.3 per game.

On the other side, Nick Martinez takes the mound for the Reds, entering with an 0-3 record and a 6.00 ERA. Similar to Cabrera, Martinez’s 4.29 xFIP shows he might improve with better fortune. He projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings today but has also been less effective at limiting hits, projected to allow 5.4.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 15th in MLB, with their batting average at 3rd, while the Reds boast a stronger offense, ranked 6th overall. This offensive power, combined with better overall projections, gives the Reds a slight edge heading into this matchup, even as both teams are grappling with below-average starts to the season. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

TJ Friedl has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 19.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 11.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jose Trevino, the Reds's expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (70.7% vs. 63.4% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.76, Miami Marlins 4.32

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

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