Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/18/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On May 18, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers will be the home team for this National League matchup. With a season record of 29-17, the Dodgers are having a great season, while the Reds are struggling with a record of 19-25.

The Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler, who has had a rough start to the season with an ERA of 7.36. Despite this, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Buehler to be above average among starting pitchers. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters.

On the other side, the Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft has had an average season with an ERA of 4.12. However, his FIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. Ashcraft is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs and striking out 3.9 batters.

The Dodgers have the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in overall performance. They excel in home runs, ranking second in the league. However, their stolen base ranking is lower, sitting at 20th. The Reds, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 24th overall. However, they lead the league in stolen bases, which could pose a challenge for the Dodgers.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -220 and an implied win probability of 66%. The Reds, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +185 and an implied win probability of 34%. The Dodgers have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs, while the Reds have a lower implied team total of 3.48 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Graham Ashcraft has relied on his secondary pitches 9.7% less often this season (80.7%) than he did last year (90.4%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Mike Ford's quickness has fallen off this year. His 24.51 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 22.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Walker Buehler didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous start and put up 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball batters like Mookie Betts generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.30 Units / 39% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.86 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.37

Get daily MLB picks here.