Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/11/2025

On May 11, 2025, the Houston Astros host the Cincinnati Reds in what marks the third game of their series. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Astros sitting at 19-19 and the Reds at 20-21. The implications of this matchup are significant, as both teams are looking to gain momentum and solidify their standings in a tightly contested league.

In their previous game, the Astros suffered a disappointing loss to the Reds, which may add extra pressure on them to bounce back at Minute Maid Park. Houston's offense, ranked 19th in MLB, has struggled this season, particularly in the power department, where they rank a dismal 25th in home runs.

Projected to start for the Astros is Ronel Blanco, who has had an average season with a 2-3 record and a 4.98 ERA. His 3.47 xERA suggests he might be due for some positive regression, which could be crucial against a Reds lineup that ranks 4th in walks drawn. However, Blanco's high walk rate could play into Cincinnati's hands, giving them opportunities to capitalize.

Chase Petty takes the mound for the Reds, struggling this season with a 0-1 record and an alarming 34.71 ERA. His low strikeout rate may prove problematic against a disciplined Astros offense that ranks 4th in the least strikeouts. Given the projections, the Astros are favored with a high implied team total of 4.62 runs, suggesting oddsmakers believe they have the upper hand in this matchup. With both teams seeking to improve their standings, this game could be pivotal for their aspirations moving forward.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Chase Petty (32.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 GB hitters in Houston's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt McLain has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's curveball rate has increased by 10.7% from last year to this one (9.5% to 20.2%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball batters like Victor Caratini usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Petty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 games (+5.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.29, Houston Astros 4.31

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chase Petty - Reds
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

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