Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 6/14/2025

The Detroit Tigers will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on June 14, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Comerica Park. The Tigers are currently enjoying a strong season with a 46-25 record, while the Reds have stumbled to a 35-35 mark, indicating they are having an average year. In their most recent game, the Tigers won decisively, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for Detroit, bringing with him a solid ERA of 3.41 and a respectable strikeout rate of 29.7%. Flaherty's ability to generate strikeouts could be crucial against a Reds lineup that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge. Despite his 5-6 record, his advanced metrics suggest he has been better than his record indicates, especially with a Power Ranking placing him as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB.

Conversely, Brady Singer will be on the hill for Cincinnati. With a 4.59 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 19.2%, Singer may struggle against a Tigers offense that ranks 9th in MLB. The projections suggest he could allow around 2.7 earned runs while giving up more than 5 hits, which could spell trouble for the Reds.

Moreover, the Tigers boast the 2nd best bullpen in the league, which should provide them with a significant advantage if the game remains close late. The Reds, on the other hand, are dealing with a 20th ranking for their bullpen, forcing them to rely heavily on Singer's performance.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Tigers showing as strong favorites with a moneyline of -170, the odds favor Detroit to build on their recent success and capitalize on Cincinnati's inconsistencies.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer's slider percentage has dropped by 8.7% from last season to this one (45.5% to 36.8%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Extreme groundball batters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.2-mph decrease from last year's 93.3-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Javier Baez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 67 games (+14.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.79, Detroit Tigers 4.18

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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