Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/5/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

In an intriguing National League matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on June 5, 2024. The Rockies, currently having a terrible season with a record of 21-39, will be hoping to turn things around against the Reds, who are having a below-average season with a record of 28-33.

The Rockies will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson. Hudson, who has struggled this season with a 2-7 record and an ERA of 5.02, is ranked as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he may have an advantage against the Reds, who have the fifth-most strikeouts in the league. Hudson's low-strikeout style could pose a challenge for the Reds' offense.

On the other side, the Reds will send right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft to the mound. Ashcraft, with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.76, is considered an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings. He will be facing a Rockies offense that ranks as the 17th best in MLB this season. The Rockies have struggled with their batting average, ranking 18th in the league, but they have shown some power, ranking 24th in home runs. However, they have struggled in the stolen bases department, ranking last in the league.

Both teams have had their struggles this season, but the Reds have the advantage in terms of overall team performance. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Reds bullpen as the 18th best in MLB, while the Rockies bullpen ranks as the worst in the league.

According to the current odds, the Reds are favored to win this game with an implied win probability of 54%. However, the Rockies have a high implied team total of 5.48 runs, indicating that they are expected to put up a fight against the Reds' pitching.

It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds, with the Rockies looking to overcome their poor season and the Reds aiming to improve their below-average record. The high Game Total of 11.5 runs suggests that we could see some offensive fireworks in this matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 24.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #10 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Elias Diaz's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.56 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 48 games (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 6.18 vs Colorado Rockies 5.41

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.