Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/27/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies in a National League matchup on April 27, 2025. The Reds are currently sitting at 14-13, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies are struggling significantly with a record of 4-22. In their last game, the Reds edged out the Rockies, continuing their push for better positioning in the standings.

Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo, projected to start, boasts a solid 2.79 ERA this season, although his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for a regression. Facing a Rockies offense that ranks 26th in MLB and leads the league in strikeouts, Lodolo could find himself in a favorable matchup. His low strikeout rate of 15.3% could be less of a concern against a team that has struggled to make contact.

On the other side, Colorado's Ryan Feltner is set to take the mound. Despite his 3.86 ERA, advanced metrics indicate he has been fortunate, with a FIP of 4.69 suggesting he may not maintain his current level of performance. Feltner's projections today are concerning, forecasting an average of 3.5 earned runs over 5.1 innings, which may not be enough to keep the Rockies competitive against a Reds lineup that ranks 6th in MLB.

With the Rockies' offense faltering and their bullpen rated 7th overall, they will need a significant turnaround to challenge the Reds. The projections indicate that the Rockies have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs, but given their struggles, it remains to be seen if they can meet those expectations. Meanwhile, the Reds’ implied total of 5.98 runs reflects their offensive capabilities, making them the team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Over his last 3 outings, Nick Lodolo has seen a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2274 rpm over the whole season to 2210 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Austin Hays has had some very good luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .276 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Cincinnati's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #27 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Despite technically being the "starter" in today's matchup, Ryan Feltner may not go more than a couple framess since he will function as more of an opener.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Kyle Farmer has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Colorado Rockies will score 5.99 runs on average in this game: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 6.24, Colorado Rockies 5.99

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

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